2nd QUARTER 2010:
RECOVERY: "The Manhattan apartment market showed distinct signs of recovery during a busy second quarter, with a modest rise in prices and a large jump in sales, according to new data. The number of days that apartment listings lingered on the market also dropped as sales picked up... The solid sales and modest increase in prices in most apartment categories led some analysts to suggest that the New York market was beginning to heal…" Wall Street Journal, July 1st:
Q2 Manhattan residential market reports reveal that low interest rates, good deals and first-time homebuyers -- some spurred by federal tax credits -- helped cause a spike in real estate sales. The number of homes sold in the second quarter surged with reports estimating that sales jumped somewhere between 47% and 81% from the slow market of last year and have increased approximately 16% from the first quarter of this year. Prices, while lower than during the boom years, have stabilized, and in some cases appear to have even slightly increased.
Appraiser Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, reports that prices haven't changed much over the past few quarters. Increases in the average and median prices are actually a result of increased movement at the higher end of the market. This segment was largely dormant after the Lehman Brothers collapse, and remained so even after sales of less expensive units had started to rise. "Prices are stable," Miller said. "They are not rising, even though the average and median are rising." Rather, the increases appeared because "the higher end of the market began to wake-up in the early part of the year ". That fact, along with continuing low interest rates are motivating buyers back into the market now that the worst of the economic crisis seems to have abated.
Bloomberg News reports: "Manhattan’s super-luxury apartments, those selling for $10 million or more, out-performed the rest of the city’s housing market. The median price of the most expensive cooperatives and condominiums climbed 6.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with an 11 percent drop across all price ranges"
Manhattan remains a strong market for the global real estate community as well. At Sotheby's we continue to see the purchasing power of the international buyers. The changes in value to the U.S. dollar, vs. the Euro, have had a strong impact on recent sales activity. Perceptions abroad about trends in the U.S. real estate market have led many international clients to believe purchasing a home in the U.S. is more affordable, retains more value and is generally a safe haven for investment .
The Field Team is confident that buyers are once again looking at real estate as a sound and safe investment as well as from a quality-of-life perspective, and we believe that long term buyers will be rewarded.
Advice from The Field Team:
Sellers: Rewards ahead for those of you who have waited out the down-turn.
Buyers: More choices available + extremely low financing rates, time to pick and buy.
MAY 2010:
Spring …a traditional time of renewal has finally come to the Manhattan Residential Real Estate Market. Recovery has started in earnest with reports of scattered inventory shortages, the resurgence of multiple bids and the return of the high-end market. Re-sales are up; new development sales are up; the rental market is up and even mortgage money is finally available for expensive homes.
The first-quarter 2010 Manhattan market reports arrived last month, bringing good news for the industry. There were 2,384 Manhattan home sales in the first quarter, a stunning 99.5% leap from the same period of last year. Co-op sales surged a record 168% from the prior year's quarter. Condo sales climbed 63%. Properties sold during the 1st quarter were an average 12% larger than a year ago.
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/mortgage-purchasing-applications-surge-on-tax-credit-expiration-mba"The New York area is benefiting from having a large array of financial institutions that make loans--from national lenders and investment firms to credit unions and smaller banks. That means even though the crisis has made credit guidelines more stringent, there is definitely more money available." http://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1272901583ZMyQY
Bidding wars -- thought to be bygone relics of the real estate boom – have started to reappear this quarter… once limited to only rare or exceptionally well-priced properties. Now that much of the prime residential inventory has been sold, competitive bids are once again becoming more and more evident.
"Getting a jumbo mortgage is becoming a little easier for home buyers. Buyers were out in force last week as the homebuyer tax credit expired, driving up mortgage purchasing application volume by another 13 percent compared to one week earlier."
Smart brokers are cautioning sellers not to raise their prices prematurely. Overpriced apartments -- those in which the seller hasn't taken the downturn into consideration -- simply don't sell. In order to generate multiple bids, or to sell at all, apartments have to be compellingly well-priced. The rational market is back.
Market Advice from The Field Team:
Sellers: Price right and start packing.
Buyers: Doors are closing, step in now.
May’s new exclusive listing: 417 Park Avenue
Grand and masterfully renovated 9 into 7 rooms in Internationally acclaimed prewar Cooperative.
APRIL 2010:
1st Quarter 2010 data is in and the rumors and predictions are true: the activity levels for 2010 are significantly greater than those of a year ago. Buyers have come out to shop again and the number of signed contracts are increasing at all levels of the Manhattan Market.
The bid/ask spread for Manhattan residential real estate has narrowed significantly during Q1 2010 from its low point one year earlier. The increased improvement in opening bids vs. asking price equation has also given rise to the sustained upward trend in sales volume that started in the 2nd half of 2009.
Inventory is being absorbed at a faster rate - an absolutely necessary step for both housing and the economy to recover. A sharp up-tick in the volume of transactions compared to the last quarter of 2009 could be Spring fever – but we strongly feel that it is a combination of: pent up buyer demand; continued low interest rates; generous financial sector bonuses and a general renewed confidence in the overall economy by New York’s affluent and educated buyers and sellers. In addition to the above factors, the weaker dollar is bringing international investors back into the NYC market, the momentum of which is only likely to continue. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36033352/ns/business-real_estate/
The fact that bonuses were back to pre melt-down levels this year, has certainly served to boost morale and confidence for sellers and buyers alike. Fortunately the worst appears to be behind us. We no longer have the significant downside potential that would justify material discounts from sellers. Indications are that we have turned the corner, as evidenced by an increase in prices and activity at the low-end of the market which is climbing to the higher end. Buyers, who were previously hesitant, now realize that there are meaningful values to be had at all price points.
The upper tier market that has been relying on “quiet” transactions is back in action. Larger apartments and townhouses are again being sold as they are more realistically priced and now more affordable than they used to be, luring buyers off the sidelines.
Regarding high end properties in new development, the supply of the very best is dropping rather dramatically, especially in prized buildings and locations. The units now in contract deliver on every level: price, location, move-in condition, views and light… all of which today’s buyers demand.
Market Advice from The Field Team:
Sellers: Engage all offers, some buyers just need to start there.
Buyers: Forget submitting low offers. If it is priced right, the seller knows it and it cannot be stolen.
April’s New Exclusive Listings:
29 East 64th Street: Sophisticated 3 Bedroom in coveted prewar Cooperative building.
The Park Regis, 50 East 89th Street: a beautiful convertible 2 bedroom in Carnegie Hill.
Visit The Field Team’s Collection of Premiere Properties: www.NikkiField.com
MARCH 2010
And finally the good news:
"By 2011, the real estate bust should be over as demand catches up with supply, " billionaire investor Warren Buffett said in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
"Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us," Buffett said. "Prices will remain far below 'bubble' levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits."[Business Week]
As for March... as the saying goes, it's in like a lion. Open House activity is roaring at full capacity. Buyers are on-the-hunt and hoping for one last chance at the bygone prices and negotiability of 2009. Even though activity is up, sales volume, this past month, has somewhat slowed due to sellers enhanced expectations resulting from the increased action of the past four months.
LOTS OF POTENTIAL DEALS: Many offers are being made; some very low, some not-as-low; and some that are close to reality. Those offers that were realistic resulted in a number of acceptances...those that were not, conversely resulted in a number of dead end negotiations. Opportunity continues to knock, but buyers are educated as to market conditions and are definitely not over-paying. The new reality should be defined when Q1 sales reports are available early April.
This past February the Field Team has represented a number of Double Dippers. These are clients who: Sell Low / Buy Low. They have seized this unique opportunity and have priced smartly; moved their homes quickly and maximized the market-spread advantage by purchasing UP for new properties that previously were beyond their grasp.
The Field Team’s presence on the West Side continues to increase. We have just launched a stunning, newly renovated, 4 Bedroom residence at the Oliver Cromwell for $4.6M. Just across the Park at 930 Fifth Avenue we now represent an Emery Roth, 2 Bedroom Duplex Coop (Pied-a-terre permitted) for an unbelievable but true price of $1.5M.
FEBRUARY 2010:
The data is in. The Manhattan Residential Market corrected on average 20% in 2009. Not as catastrophic as many predicted and particularly mild in relation to the run-up in values from Q1 2003 until the height of the market Q1 2008 which averaged a 60% climb.
Our worst transfer market in recent history seems to have had a soft landing. Low prices continue to lure Buyers into the Market while Low expectations have corrected Sellers prices.
Strong recent interest by returning foreign buyers is propping up the New York market in the early days of 2010. We are seeing British buyers in particular returning to New York specifically in the mid range $5M-$10M. We are also seeing a jolt in activity for high-priced $10M+ market due to new liquidity provided by the Wall Street pay surge.
Inventory is shrinking, buyers are surprised by the limited choices available and brokers are once again mining for potential listings. New listings volume could increase and provide a surge in inventory as potential Sellers recognize that the market is improving. Re-sales are definitely out-performing new development Condo sales as the credit crisis continues, making it difficult for buyers to get financing for those properties. Buyers are finding better values from motivated independent sellers in credit worthy buildings.
This January, the Field Team has represented 4 Buyers in securing new homes in price points from $1.1M to $12M. Our current Collection of Exclusive Properties has re-tooled asking prices, positioned to provide Buyer’s with excellent values in relation to other options.
Market Advice from The Field Team:
BUYERS: Lock in your financing now, take a second look for possible price corrections at properties you have previously considered.
SELLERS: Take advantage of the pricing spread if you are buying up. Sell fast with a compellingly priced property and secure your new dream home now.
JANUARY 2010:
Out with the old 2009 and in with the new 2010.
Manhattan's residential real estate market is now entering the 2nd phase of the historical 4-market cycle: Recession; Recovery; Growth and Over-Supply. Our entry into the Recovery period is directly related to the resurgence of the stock market; the lowest mortgage interest rates in the last 25 years and the government's continuation of the new homes tax credit.
All of the above has resulted in a new Balance in the Market. Power is shifting. Q4 2009 sales have reflected a noticeable change. Buyers, previously Kings of the Market, are losing their traction as an influx of increased competition has out-bid them. Low offers are being pushed upwards by competing offers. Multiple offers on quality or well-priced properties are once again common. Hesitant buyers are finding disappointment when returning to properties that have already been taken.
Unlike in the housing boom, over-priced homes simply do not sell. Sellers who have adjusted their prices appropriately are now receiving and accepting good offers. Many of our customers are seizing this opportunity for value-purchasing before this buying opportunity disappears.
In December, The Field Team represented four buyers each with signed contracts in hand and successfully marketed 710 Park Avenue, securing a signed contract in 1 week with 3 back-up buyers. Activity at the architecturally acclaimed 860/870 United Nations Plaza has heated-up as buyers recognize the extraordinary values available (averaging $1000 per sq.ft.) in our 2, 3, 4 and 5 Bedroom listings.
This month we will be launching a historic architecturally significant property: 1 West 67th Street, a 12-room Duplex Coop at the iconic Hotel des Artistes. Pre-listing notices have garnered a strong group of potential purchasers cued up to be the first-in-the-door on opening day, January 12.
Market Advice from The Field Team:
Sellers: The market is shifting. Be certain your price reflects current conditions.
Buyers: Act now...time is of the essence! A "once in a lifetime buying opportunity" is fast coming to a close.
HAPPY NEW YEAR from THE FIELD TEAM!
DECEMBER 2009:
After a tumultuous year of dealing with unknowns and a rollercoaster economy, the last gasp of 2009 seems to finally indicate that the purchase of residential real estate is once again a sound investment strategy.
We are gathering market momentum. Pent-up demand has created a great many new and anxious buyers in the market while sellers have adjusted to the new pricing realities; a situation which has resulted in fair deals for both parties. Buyer's offers are more realistic as are seller's asking prices. Pricing has settled. Brokers finally have hard data to use in accurately pricing properties. Now more than ever in recent history, pricing is the key to transaction success. Properties launched correctly, competitively and compellingly are the big winners. Those listings that have languished and have now recalibrated their asking prices are also seeing increased activity and interest. Sellers are engaging in real negotiations that are facilitating accepted offers. Volume continues a slow but solid climb.
The first quarter of 2010, traditionally a strong buying time, will give us all a clearer picture of the direction of the market and determine the sustainability of this recovery. In addition, we will all be watching the volatility of global markets and its impact on our returning international investors.
Confidence fuels real estate purchasing, and it appears a sufficient level of confidence is back in the Manhattan market.
Market Advice from The Field Team:
Sellers: Adjust your prices now for end of the year Clearance Sales.
Buyers: This is it! The "once in a decade buying opportunity" may be ending soon.
NOVEMBER 2009:
Significantly lower asking prices have resulted in a market plateau. Flat numbers were reported for October Closings and Signed Contracts. This seems to be a temporary situation, however, as leading indicators remain encouraging due to Low Prices, Low Interest Rates and Seller's Lower Expectations.
Here at The Field Team, in the past month, we have signed 2 high-end contracts, received 2 Board Approvals at selective Park Avenue Buildings and celebrated 3 closings.
The Chapel at 455 CPW has been leased for 2 years at a strong number, however remains available for purchase as a great income producing opportunity for an investor or a magnificent home for a future resident/owner.
Outlook for our sellers is encouraging as end of year robust bonuses will kick in soon and a new crop of buyers will be cruising the market.
Market Advice from The Field Team:
Sellers: Price attractively and buyers will come.
Buyers: Do your homework; learn the new market and Purchase opportunities will be self-evident.
OCTOBER 2009:
What a difference a month can make in the high stakes Manhattan Real Estate Market. Home Sales in the third quarter have increased by 45.6% from second quarter. Driven by rising consumer confidence and a rebounding stock market, buyers have come out to buy again. Inventory is shrinking and you can hear a collective sigh of relief from sellers. Our once languishing properties have received realistic offers that sellers have accepted.
We found that many of our negotiable sellers were themselves looking towards their next purchase in “the buyer’s market.” Sellers were more than ready to reduce their selling expectations in order to secure an equally attractive new purchase for themselves.
Please review our new inventory, as it represents the corrected market prices. You will find that all of our current exclusive listings are priced attractively and are designed to secure deals on a timely basis. Our two most unique exclusive properties are, perhaps, the single greatest architecturally significant private residences in Manhattan. The Chapel and The Castle. The Chapel has just been given a significantly reduced price of $12,500,000.
If you would like to discuss the market in general, or your specific real estate needs, please call or e-mail Nikki Field, Helen Marcos or Jeanne Bucknam.
SEPTEMBER 2009:
We now have clear indicators of market and pricing stabilization. Most low bids are being tested and pricing appears to be rising off its lows. This does not mean we are having price escalation: it simply means that the lows seen earlier this year were indeed a product of a super-low volume of transactions comprising mostly desperate or anxious sellers.